Could Rapid Simulation forecast Coronavirus spread in the UK? It took us 18 hours to do it…

The rise of new COVID-19 cases in the UK has pushed the country into urgent planning mode. Speculations of how many and which people will be struck down have flung the government into panic. Are we as doomed as it appears?

In just 18 hours we’ve completed a rapid analysis of COVID-19 cases based off nearly 40 days of data from World Health Organisation as well as the World Fact Book. The results suggest the UK is not standing at the precipice of outbreak just yet.

How do we know this?

This rapid analysis has generated a brand new simulation of coronavirus cases for the UK and has located the tipping points for outbreak within any given country based on demographic and economic data including:

  • GDP
  • Population / Density
  • Age Distribution
  • Water & Air Quality
  • Climate
  • Food
  • Sanitation

What do we know about COVID-19?

From our simulated data we noticed there is a growth curve (Sigmoidal function) that can fit a country’s data, for example Chinese cases so far fit the following curve:

Confirmed Coronovirus cases in China and fitted Sigmoidal function

The UKs trend to date (04/03/2020) in the below figure shows the total number of cases following a similar curve. This appears to predict a impending rapid increase in the number of cases in the following days.

However….

Only 3 out of the 30 most recent cases could have originated within the UK .

This means that whilst there has been, and will be, a jump in the amount of cases in the UK we are still far, very far, away from an outbreak of COVID-19 that has started within the UK.

How long did this take in numbers?

8 Hours Data collection and formating/cleaning
4 Hours Simulation Modelling
6 Hours Model training and data analysis